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브레이크뉴스 문홍철 기자= 매출 500대 기업 중 제조업을 영위하는 수출기업들 올해 연평균 환율 수준을 1303원으로 예상했다.
전국경제인연합회가 시장조사 전문기관 모노리서치에 의뢰해 매출 500대 기업 중 제조업을 영위하는 수출기업들의 재무 담당자를 대상(105개사 응답)으로 ‘환율 전망 및 기업 영향’을 조사한 결과, 이 같이 나타났다.
전경련은 연평균 기준으로 원·달러 환율이 1300원을 넘긴 해는 1998년 외환위기(1395원) 이후 24년 만에 처음이라며, 기업들은 연말까지 원‧달러 환율을 평균 1400원으로 예상하는 것 같다고 추정했다.
현재 시점의 연평균 환율 전망 1303원은 올해 초 기업들이 사업계획을 수립할 당시에 전망한 연평균 환율 수준인 1214원에 비해서 89원이나 높은 수준이다. 특히, 올해 연평균 환율을 1300원 이상으로 전망한 곳이 연초에는 8.6%에 불과했으나, 현재는 그 7배가 넘는 60.8%로 조사됐다.
구체적으로 연초 사업계획 수립 시 기업들은 연평균 환율을 1200원대(46.6%)와 1100원대(41.0%)를 가장 많이 전망했으나, 현재 시점에서는 1300원대(57.0%)와 1200원대(34.3%)를 가장 많이 예상하고 있었다.
전경련은 수출 제조기업의 경우, 환율 전망을 기초로 수출입 단가, 영업이익 등 구체적 경영계획을 수립하는데, 최근 환율의 변동성이 지나치게 커져서 기업들의 경영 애로가 가중되고 있는 상황이라고 봣다.
기업들의 손익분기점 환율은 1236원으로 나타나 현재 시점에서의 연평균 환율 전망치인 1303원보다 낮은 것으로 조사됐다. 손익분기점 환율을 구체적으로 살펴보면 △1200원대(48.5%) △1100원대(29.5%) △1300원대(17.2%) △1000원대(2.9%), △1400원 이상(1.9%) 순이었다.
기업들은 올해 예상되는 환율 전망치가 연초 사업계획 수립시 수준을 상회함에 따라 영업이익이 평균 0.6% 악화될 것으로 예상했다. 환율 전망치 상승에 따른 영업이익 영향을 구체적으로 살펴보면 △영업이익 감소(45.8%) △영업이익증가(36.2%) △영향 없음(18.0%) 순이었다.
반면, 환율 전망치 상승으로 기업들의 매출액은 평균 0.3% 증가할 것으로 조사됐다. 응답비중별로 구분하면 ‘증가할 것’(44.7%)이라는 응답이 가장 많았고, ‘감소할 것’(34.4%), ‘영향 없음’(20.9%) 순이었다.
이와 관련, 기업들은 환리스크를 최소화하기 위해 비용감축 등 긴축경영에 돌입한 것으로 나타났다. 최근의 환율 급등에 대응해 ‘인건비 등 원가 절감’(31.1%)과 같은 허리띠 졸라매기로 대응하고 있다는 응답이 가장 많았고, △수출입단가(혹은 물량) 조정(24.8%) △상품 투자 등 환헤지 전략 확대(14.0%) △별다른 대응책 없음(11.4%) 등이었다.
향후 원화 가치를 추가로 하락시킬 수 있는 요인에 대해서는 △러·우 사태 등 국제정세 불안 지속(40.0%) △한미 금리차 확대(36.2%) △유럽·중국 경기 침체(14.3%) △무역수지 적자 심화(8.6%) △기타(0.9%) 순이었다.
바라고 있는 환율안정 정책과제로는 외환시장 안정 조치(43.5%)를 가장 많이 꼽았고, △수출입 관련 금융‧보증지원(15.9%) △공급망 안정화(15.6%) △주요국과의 통화스왑 체결(11.1%) 등이 필요하다고 응답했다.
추광호 전경련 경제본부장은 “최근 글로벌 경기 침체, 고금리 등 경영환경이 불투명한 상황에서 환율마저 급등하여, 기업들의 경영실적이 크게 악화될 가능성이 있다”며 “지금 환율 수준은 우리 경제의 펀더멘털을 고려했을 때 과도한 측면이 있으므로, 통화스왑 확대 등 정부의 적극적인 외환시장 안정 조치가 마련될 필요가 있다”고 말했다.
break9874@naver.com
*아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.<*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.>
Conglomerates forecast an average annual exchange rate of 1303 won this year..1,300 won for the first time since the currency crisis
Increased production costs such as imported raw materials due to the rise in the exchange rate. Concerns about profitability deterioration
Break News Reporter Moon Hong-cheol= Among the top 500 companies in sales, export companies engaged in manufacturing are expected to have an average annual exchange rate of 1,033 won this year.
This was the result of a survey conducted by the Federation of Korean Industries to Mono Research, a market research institute, on 'foreign exchange rate forecasts and corporate impact' targeting financial managers of exporting companies engaged in manufacturing among the top 500 companies in sales (105 responses).
The FKI estimates that it is the first time in 24 years since the 1998 foreign exchange crisis (1,395 won) that the won-dollar exchange rate exceeded 1,300 won on an average annual basis, and that companies seem to expect the won-dollar exchange rate to average 1,400 won by the end of the year. did.
The current average annual exchange rate forecast of 1303 won is 89 won higher than the average annual exchange rate of 1214 won that companies predicted when they established their business plans earlier this year. In particular, at the beginning of the year, only 8.6% predicted the annual average exchange rate of 1,300 won or more this year, but now it is 60.8%, which is more than seven times that number.
Specifically, when establishing business plans at the beginning of the year, companies most predicted the average annual exchange rate of 1200 won (46.6%) and 1,100 won (41.0%), but at the present time, 1300 won (57.0%) and 1,200 won (34.3%) were the highest. was expecting
In the case of export manufacturing companies, the FKI establishes specific business plans such as import/export unit price and operating profit based on the exchange rate forecast.
The break-even exchange rate of companies was found to be 1236 won, lower than the current average annual exchange rate estimate of 1303 won. If we look at the break-even point exchange rate in detail, △1200 won (48.5%) △1100 won (29.5%) △1300 won (17.2%) △1,000 won (2.9%), △1400 won or more (1.9%) were in order.
Companies predicted that their operating profit would deteriorate by an average of 0.6% as the expected foreign exchange rate for this year exceeded the level at the beginning of the year when the business plan was established. Specifically, looking at the effect of the increase in the foreign exchange rate forecast on operating profit, △ operating profit decreased (45.8%), △ operating profit increased (36.2%), and △ no effect (18.0%) was followed.
On the other hand, it was found that companies' sales would increase by an average of 0.3% due to an increase in the exchange rate forecast. Breaking down by proportion of responses, the most common response was ‘will increase’ (44.7%), followed by ‘decrease’ (34.4%) and ‘no effect’ (20.9%).
In this regard, it was found that companies have begun austerity management such as cost reduction to minimize foreign exchange risk. In response to the recent sharp rise in the exchange rate, the most common response was 'reducing costs such as labor costs' (31.1%) by tightening the belt. (14.0%) △No response measures (11.4%), etc.
As for factors that could further depreciate the won in the future, △Continued international political instability such as the Russo-Wu crisis (40.0%) △Expansion of the interest rate gap between Korea and the United States (36.2%) △Europe and China economic downturn (14.3%) △Decreased trade deficit (8.6%) △Others (0.9%) followed.
As the desired exchange rate stabilization policy task, the most frequently cited measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market (43.5%), △Export and import-related financial and guarantee support (15.9%) △Supply chain stabilization (15.6%) △Conclusion of currency swaps with major countries (11.1%) responded that it was necessary.
Choo Gwang-ho, head of the FKI's economic division, said, "In a situation where the business environment is uncertain, such as the recent global economic downturn and high interest rates, even the exchange rate has soared, and there is a possibility that the business performance of companies will deteriorate significantly. “There is an excessive aspect to this, so it is necessary to prepare active measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market, such as expanding currency swaps,” he said.
